AFM 2023: The Future of Independent Film with Jill Goldsmith: Milan Popelka, Joe Simpson, Laura Lewis, Tim White
Our moderator Jill Goldsmith has been with Deadline since 2019 after working as a New York based contributor.
She follows corporate finance, deals. and publicity trading companies in media and entertainment, film financing, and New York film and TV productions.
Jill Goldsmith
Hi. Hi, everyone. I’m so glad to be here at AFM to talk about the state of independent film. It’s always been a challenging business but this feels especially transitional time. We have four terrific panelists.
Tim White of Star Thrower Entertainment
Laura Lewis of Rebelle Media
Milan Popelka of FilmNation, one of the biggest international indie sales companies.
Joe Simpson, a longtime film financier and co founder of Ashland Hill Media Finance.
So we’ll talk about how the business has changed what it looks like going forward.
Now just to set the scene, it’s more complicated than ever; the strike foremost, but that’s layered on top of other issues from high inflation and interest rates, rising production costs.
Some contraction and the streaming landscape and traditional output deals and so on. However, there is still an audience for indie films, including sometimes in theaters. Projects are obviously getting made and they’re, and, but how are they getting made exactly? And, what are the biggest challenges now, as well as possible opportunities as the industry shifts?
So I’m going to sit and I’m going to start with Laura as a pure indie producer and then Tim, who goes both the studio and independent route for his films, and Milan and Joe, who both look at many productions each year and have a great, feel and overview for the pulse of the industry.
So I also think I’ve seen we all know each other. So feel free to jump in at any time.
Please do actually. Okay. So Laura, what’s your experience been like recently developing projects or trying to what’s changed in the way youe valuate or select projects?
Laura Lewis: That’s a tough question because it changes every month. It seems especially this year with the strikes. I Started my company in late 2018.
So right before COVID. And I will say COVID and then the strikes have changed a little bit of how we evaluate projects with the theatrical being harder due to COVID and, it’s still reported 20 percent of the audience hasn’t come back. We definitely are focusing on projects that we think are more commercial, whether it’s genre, comedy, thriller, the straight up dramas are harder as much as I love them.
They’re the movies that got me into the business. It’s harder to, it’s harder to push this forward unless you really have a list filmmaker attached that, will attract the A list talent. So we really just have to think about what will get us that theatrical. Cause that really still does drive the rest of the market.
Still, so yeah, it has affected how we evaluate things. And then the strike in terms of developing Obviously, we couldn’t develop anything with WGA Writers for the last five months but we did a lot with looking for IP, looking for books that we had things teed up, ready to go the moment the strike ended.
But I wouldn’t say that’s affected how we’ve developed. It’s more the overall market.
Jill Goldsmith: So you had dramas, you had things that you wanted to do, but you couldn’t.
Laura Lewis: Yeah, I passed on things because I’m like, I, as much as I love it, I don’t see a market for it. And, when you’re producing, it’s. It’s years.
And if you don’t see a business path forward, it’s just harder. So when we evaluate a project, it’s first of all, do we love it? Because again, it’s years. And secondly, do we see a business case that can be made around this project? And if you don’t see that in the current climate. Then what’s the point?
We’re not making paintings. We’re making a million dollars, millions of dollars projects. So we have to see a business case for it.
Jill Goldsmith: And okay. So Tim, can you talk about Star Thrower’s current projects, what you’re working on and how you’re experiencing the business right now? And if it’s changed the way you are evaluating projects yet?
Tim White: Yeah, sure. So I think really for us, I think the way that We look at it largely is we definitely develop the things that we love and like Laura said, we have to be really passionate about it. I think we have to feel like. There is a path to the film happening. And we, I would say increasingly stay away from the toughest dramas probably, but I think we still do them and it’s something that we love and it’s something that’s, I think if we developed the initial script for the post in 2016, I think.
And I definitely think that our sort of initial instinct on that, If we thought about it too much would have been that’s too tough of a movie is probably tougher now than it was back then. But, I think at the end of the day you have to just think, is this an amazing character will movie stars want to play this character I think if you feel that way, it’s still.
Worth going for. But in that sense, I think we definitely have tried to focus more on commercial things. I think we see a real path. We have this film right now. That’s your question. It’s called the threesome is being put together independently and that traditional model with.
foreign sales and equity financing that we actually pre sold at AFM last year, I think. And then we have another film that we’re doing for the day 24 that it’s probably a little more of a sort of hybrid because we have them on board now. But I think really, when we develop things from the start, I don’t know that we think about it as an independent outlet or as a.
Studio film, I think we think more in terms of do we love this and also is there an audience for it? Can this attract cast and then We have the flexibility right to go both ways to go down the independent routes or also go the studio route And that’s really helpful. I think
Jill Goldsmith: How do you decide if there’s an audience for it? What’s the though process?
Tim White: I think it’s a really tough one It’s more of just, it’s a terrible to say, but it’s more of a gut instinct kind of, do we love this? We want to see this. I think it’s a mistake to just follow something that worked, which is a lot of times a tendency.
I think honestly, we just think it, it’s just something we would love. We have four people at our company now in terms of the actual. Staff and and also a couple of investors and I think everyone’s got different tastes. And it’s been really helpful to just bounce ideas off of everyone and just see what do you think of this?
What do you think of that? And yeah, there’s really no kind of like straight [00:08:00] answer. It’s more of a gut thing.
Jill Goldsmith: And when we spoke last week, I think you, you had said you’re not, you haven’t changed the way you’re operating right now. But that one thing you felt strongly was that there’s a lot more uncertainty.
Tim White: Yeah, I think that’s true. I think We don’t know what the financing for a lot of our projects is going to look like coming out of the strikes. Normally what we had done prior to all this, like I said, was we just really developed what we loved and we packaged it and we tried to get great filmmakers because we can great cast.
And then took the project everywhere, and we talked to both the major studios and we also talked to the independents and surveyed which option was best at the end of the day, not just economically, but also creatively. And I think I think what’s is probably a little bit unclear to me now is coming out of this what those different options are going to actually look like.
If we’re going to see a substantial pullback on the studio, streamer side, or And also just how much money we’ll be able to raise out of the independent markets. But I also think there’s a lot of opportunities and I think you’re, you may be able to structure deals as an independent, where you’re able to retain rights and stuff like that in kind of ways that you haven’t been able to in, worldwide. Producer type, studio deals.
Laura Lewis: That’s interesting.
Jill Goldsmith: So to one, you have just a great perspective on the industry and the market. So how do you think things stand and, we did also talk about opportunities or, new ways of doing business, from off of what Tim was saying.
Milan Popelka: So I’ll probably be, end up being a little roundabout and I’ll start with a couple things that Lauren and Tim were saying. One that I completely agree with. You can’t chase trends and you have to put the creative first. You don’t know what the market’s gonna look like in two, three years at a time and where things are changing this quickly.
And if you’re trying to engineer a business model with something that’s happening now, who knows what it’s gonna be. And I’ll talk about the sort of general trends in the market. Let’s start the big two broad takeaways or it’s getting more rational. And it’s getting more specific and the small pet peeve about when there’s blanket discussions about the market being down or theatrical being dead.
It’s just simply not true. And I think that if you’re going to navigate or challenging times, you have to remember two things. One. It’s always been challenging. There’s always a new challenge. There’s problems in different, and as a global company, we’re dealing with every market and, you come to AFM and you’re like this year, these territories are having their inherent challenges.
And so that’s going to hurt finance plans. And then domestic theatrical, in years past was having challenges and well, domestic theatrical is dead and then it just bounces back. And so challenges are not new. To the independent space. And there’s a lot of producers out there. Challenge is also opportunity because a lot of people throw up their hands and say, it’s really tough right now.
And so the people that succeed are the ones that say, okay, it’s tough, but how do we navigate this and being understanding that the world is rational and that it’s specific helps, come back to what that means. But it has to start with a creative, everyone in here is working in a creative industry.
It is what makes people leave their couches to go see something is because it’s undeniable. It cuts through. And if you don’t have that feeling, it doesn’t matter if you can engineer a business model because it’s in one way or another, it will fail. If the creative is not the thing propelling it. It’s not to say you don’t think about the business and just make something and say, now, what do we do with it?
You also have to be thoughtful. And there’s there’s a balancing act between this, where the business model can’t leave, but you have to be thinking about what the. What it could be and how do you make some decisions at the early part of putting a project together? That line you up for success and you can’t guarantee success, but you can really Increase the odds that you’re going to come up with something great that actually ends up working people seeing and so the business and the creator have to be inexorably linked You can start with being passionate about it believing that the creative cuts through And think about where it ends up, you know I’ve heard a lot of people say hey, you know the theatrical is not working right?
I know we’ll come to this a little later, but It depends on what your expectations are. If you build an 80 million independent movie and it makes 35 at the box, so it’s probably not working, but if you understand what your film’s audience is, where you think it can get to in the success, you start building that into even how you develop it.
Do you put in huge set pieces that are going to be incredibly expensive? Or do you actually think about what the scale of the story is? And is there a way to do it cheaper in this environment? And I know we’ll talk about that later. It ties into the idea of rationality. Again it’s people are saying pricing’s coming down.
It’s not really true because if they find that thing, asking about what we see in the market generally, independent distributors, domestic distributors, worldwide buyers, they all need great movies. They can’t engineer enough for them on their own. And so they will pay a premium for the things that work.
And are undeniable, and they can serve their mission. And maybe they won’t for the things that don’t. But it’s not just that there’s this uniform, Hey, the market’s come down by a certain amount. It’s just certain things are working in this environment and work for the buyers that are out there and stand out and cut through and have a big idea.
And you’ll do well. We believe in the independent sales business. We see it as a growth area. We’re here. We’ve got two movies here that that we’re selling and we’re very confident. And we see a lot of buyers that are out there that are looking to buy. And so we’re approaching the market with optimism while being completely aware of all the challenges that people are facing.
Jill Goldsmith: So focus, a focus on what the project is, what the appeal could be. And obviously the budget but I think, what about kinds of new deal structures or partnerships co productions, teaming up with talent in different ways, things like that.
Milan Popelka: All of it. But it’s it comes back to the specificity point.
And so I talked about the rationality and specificity is, what is the particular project and coming up with a plan that is bespoke? and tailored to that project. I think again, speaking back to the generality of saying, Hey, this is how movies should get financed. It’s just simply, it’s like a concept that, that doesn’t exist right now.
It’s how should this project be financed? How should this story that I want to tell get put out into the world? And then the partnerships pieces and the financing pieces go into that. We just did a film called Flora and Son with Anthony Bregman and John Carney and fifth season. And there was a vision of what that movie.
It was going to be, and you can always pivot along the way. We’re trying to preserve the option to do a worldwide sale. And so the movie was financed. With a pure equity us fifth season and john and anthony and we just said let’s just do it for a price and do it together and it was a great outcome at sundance and that worked for that movie it wouldn’t have worked for a 25 million dollar movie and so we tailored that plan of where we thought it could go in success and had incredible talent and producers that were driving the bus and That work, it won’t work for a 25 million commercial movie.
Jill Goldsmith: So if I asked you what kinds of projects are selling well or working well, it would be these, the ones that are intelligently put together thoughtfully.
Milan Popelka: There’s the price to value, the things that will sell well, the combination of the producer, the financier, the sales agent have constructed a finance plan where The value in the marketplace matches what it can be made for.
If something is getting made at 60, but you think the value is 30 and you’re hoping for a lottery ticket outcomes. probably not going to sell too well. But things that are cutting through our voices and ideas that are undeniable or really looking for commercial entertaining stories with big ideas, whether that’s comedy, you see the success of genre movies.
But dramas work. We still believe it just has to be, as Tim was saying, incredible character, something unique or filmmaker that has a voice that people can go see because people are it’s This is another one of those places where people generalize, where people don’t go to theaters anymore. We just simply don’t believe that.
We believe in a theatrical experience. It’s a, it’s not a, hey, people learn not to go to theaters, and so now they don’t go to theaters. It is a, it’s a relative. It’s a relative judgment. It’s I do have other things to do and I guess I figured out that watching, movies on my couch is easy and convenient until something pulls you out of that apartment or that house and gets you into the theaters.
You’re seeing real success with movies, with Barbenheimer or with the genre movies. And you have these arguments that are like that was Barbenheimer and that was a genre movie. Oh, that was a comedy. Our view is. They were compelling things that people wanted to see that were special enough to get people out.
It was communal. And it pulled them out of the house because of those things. If you’re making 17 arguments of why things worked in theatrical, they’re very specific. At some point you say they’re working theatrically because all of these things are having success. It’s a narrow strike zone, and it’s particular things, and they have to stand out and be special.
People are going to theatres to lean into it.
Jill Goldsmith: So Joe, do you agree with that? The theatrical assessment?
Joe Simpson: I think Milan’s talking junk. No I Yeah, look, I’m a financier, so I, my job’s a little easier than these guys. They actually have to develop content and develop stories and package them together.
We help with that process where we can and we provide finance. But no, I think that the ethical market for the right products is thriving, and we’re seeing that now. And I think, I’m cautiously optimistic about the independent sector for many of the reasons that have just been mentioned.
The market is changing, I completely agree with Milan, my earlier comment notwithstanding, that the independent film has faced challenges for years, and it will continue to face challenges, but we just, it behooves us all to pivot accordingly when these challenges come along, and at the moment we’re seeing a lot of movies coming through that have a clear idea of who their audience is, And they’re generating really healthy sales.
Tim White: Long may that continue. And, Laura had mentioned theatrical, in some cases, it really does drive other revenue streams. But I think that when we talked to you, you said that you don’t have to have it to make money. Correct.
Joe Simpson: It depends what the movie is. I think, any distributors in the room will know, better than most, that having a theatrical platform increases the life value of that film extraordinarily. But you can still put films together for a responsible budget, shot in a with a responsible finance plan, that can find an audience and can make a profit without going to theaters. And I think there are plenty of
Tim White: those.
Jill Goldsmith: And so Ashland Hills invested many millions into films in the last couple of years, right? 22, I think. Correct. Yeah. And you are, evaluating projects, you touched on that as Milan is too looking at what who the audience is or how do you evaluate where you’re going?
Joe Simpson: we we have a line of credit with an American institutional fund that enormous. We’re a small piece of that, but it does give us north of a hundred million dollars to deploy. lender, so when the talented folks that we have here come along and bring us a project, we’ll be looking at where is it shooting, what’s the tax credit, what’s our experience with that, how bankable is it, and then what’s the plan for sales.
It doesn’t necessarily have to have some sales, we’ve done some films. Where we contribute cash to a finance plan that means that the film can get made and possibly flip to a streamer or do a worldwide deal or still go the independent route. You need to have that flexibility and we’ve done a few of those.
We’ve also done deals where a sale, a producer will come along with a fistful of pre sales and say I’ve got a bunch of pre sales, bank these. We have a bunch of unsold territories, put some money up against these, and we stitch together all over them. That’s
Jill Goldsmith: what we did. And what’s the average budget of the productions you lend to?
Joe Simpson: yEah, we’re not very good on averages, because I think we did an 800, 000 shark movie in Thailand, that sold for 1. 2 by the way, so you know, you can make money with little movies. And then our largest loan has been 35 million into a 60 odd million dollar movie. On average, our loans are probably 8 billion.
Jill Goldsmith: Yeah, and so the logic is the same whether it’s an 800, 000 movie or a 35 million dollar, right?
Tim White: Yeah we’re cold financiers and it’s about making a buck. The story, I’ll leave to the
Jill Goldsmith: So just I know we have been talking about theatrical. And it’s true that there have been huge successes right at the box office, but I think is there not still the feeling that for indie films.
Prestige drama, some kind of just a lot of smaller films that it’s not come back and it’s not clear if it will, or how do you see that maybe network
Milan Popelka: can go down?
Joe Simpson: I think if you’ve got the right content, it goes through, but I’m saying you, you have a clear audience and it’s a compelling movie that stands out and gets people motivated to go to the theater, they’ll get it.
Jill Goldsmith: Yeah.
Laura Lewis: I, I. I totally agree. Milan said this too I know this is the most obvious example, but everything everywhere that A24 released, it was a very unique voice and a, and something that people don’t get to often see that drove them to the theater. And I think it’s just about the expectations.
And as Milan was saying earlier, like it can be a success if it only makes it to box office. If you’ve structured your Film in a way where that finance plan makes sense, then there are numbers of films that are still making two, three, four night at the box office and that drives every other revenue stream, you just have to structure your film appropriately.
Laura Lewis: as long use the right word rational like now we’re getting more rational and I think we’re going to go back to more of a licensing model, which means that theatrical should be able to have more opportunity than a lot of things flipping straight to streaming.
I think we’re going to just have more diversity of how movies are released and that will be good for independent theatrical films. So I’m hopeful in the future in this post boom environment and I think it, yeah, it’s just all about how you put your film together.
Milan Popelka: There’s a story that I love from my time at FilmNation.
To speak to what Laura was saying when I was talking about calibrating what success looks like and then building your plan. Matches the expectations of what that can be. Because you can’t be building movies to be lottery tickets and be sustainable business. You have to think, really challenge yourself.
Who’s the audience? It starts, who’s the audience? And then back up. What’s the value of that? We do that in each country, territory by territory. People are doing it in the US is you start with how big is the audience? Where is that audience? How do we get to them? And then you just, you can bring that back to what you think the value is.
I remember someone this was many years ago said, Hey, I’m really sorry about a performance of your film disobedience, which is really small independent film. And I was like, I, sorry, it made single digit millions at the box office. And we thought it was a complete win. The movie was built. It With that in mind between the soft money the international pre sales like no one was expecting box office And we thought it was a great outcome.
It’s a movie. We love and someone was consoling me and I was like, why? She didn’t really rip up the box office. Like it was a win that optics is hard if you’re sitting outside it to understand because we never expected anything else and if you build your Strategy. It’s not just a plan of finance plan with a bunch of numbers.
It is what is the life of this movie? And what does it look like if you can calibrate it to your ingoing expectations and what the market’s saying, small box office, there’s going to be big wins. And I think that’s the onus on producer, but completely believe in the theatrical experience.
And I, we’re also still in about a year out of the pandemic where it’s going to take time. It’s habit forming. And even people want to say that people aren’t going to theaters. They say they have a habit while habits change over time. And again, the onus is on people to create. Great movies that will be worth it for people to leave their home or stop watching TikTok.
Hopefully they stop watching TikTok and that will change over time. It may feel completely differently in a year. It’s what it feels like now. And I’m not to say that’s an irrational feeling that people have because we have it too. It’s like it is challenging. Anyone that says it isn’t in the film business.
I think that you have to approach it with optimism. I think that’s the thing that gets you through this. And then really challenging yourself on what it is you’re making and at what price point and what you expected.
Jill Goldsmith: iT seems like people are, if you think COVID is maybe still a lingering factor just behaviorally,
Laura Lewis: I guess people are out to dinner and they’re out at concerts and sports, but they’re not like that’s what’s at the movies.
Jill Goldsmith: Let’s go to the movies.
Laura Lewis: I would say it’s incumbent on us to change people’s habits too. Like for a couple of years, everything was put on streaming. So those habits change. But if we put movie in theater and hold it back from the. From streaming for a bit and allow word of mouth to grow, then you have the opportunity for more and more [00:26:00] people to see something that way.
But if you think, day and date’s the best model, then you go for that too. The, what was it that just came out on Peacock that did really well? What was it? The Friday Night Fridays. Yeah. Look at that’s a perfect example of something that worked well on multiple platforms. So I think it’s on us to.
Change the models to fit how you guys think the film is. As Lauren said earlier, every film, whether it’s the finance plan or the distribution plan, is its own business plan. It’s incumbent on us to change those habits, and create different models of distribution and financing.
Jill Goldsmith: so let’s talk about the strike for a minute. Unfortunately, we were hoping maybe we’d have another conversation. Anyone have any news?
Just, how has it impacted the indie film business from the obvious, it’s been hard to get projects moving the sort of package made, promoted, just to get interim agreements to longer term issues.
Maybe there’ll be like a gap in the pipeline for indie films, there weren’t enough packaged going into next year at some point. Anyone want to jump first?
Tim White: Sure, I can start and just say, it’s definitely been, it’s definitely been incredibly challenging. I think on all fronts, it’s been difficult to get the interim agreements as I think we all know, I think a lot of that has just been, they’re really sad because it’s been, completely overwhelmed with applications and they can’t, it’s been hard to.
process them quickly enough to give a lot of independent producers and financiers the lead time that they need to do all the things that need to happen. And I think also on the packaging side, it’s been hard to just get scripts to actors and get scripts to people because, really no one is supposed to be reading anything right now during the strike.
So I think it just made it a pretty cumbersome process to actually. Put these independent films together in order to get them to the point that you can actually really apply for the interim agreement and actually have the financing. But but at the same time it, it does feel like the pipeline is moving better right now and it’s getting it’s getting easier to actually Get the agreement and get the projects going right at the time where, it could hopefully be wrapping up.
Joe Simpson: So we’ve seen, just from a finances perspective, it’s clearly had an impact on our deal flow. We see fewer films coming through but there are still. This is primarily a U. S. strike, so we’ve been doing movies in Canada, we’ve been doing movies in Australia and New Zealand, just wrapped one in Scotland.
So there’s still filmmaking going on in the independent space, but there’s a whole bunch of actors that aren’t in it. And I think even with a wave of some talent, they’re still reluctant to be in a movie anyway, so it’s definitely slowed down our deal flow. I
Laura Lewis: think our biggest challenge was more the WGA strike than SAG, because it put us five months behind on developing projects, because they wouldn’t let writers work with independent producers.
SAG at least put something in place to allow independents to move forward, even though it was a very cumbersome process. But the WGA was like, everyone was struck. And putting us behind on all that development that’s been the toughest part. Cause then We’re going to have less ready to go next year.
Just putting us a year to two behind
Milan Popelka: long. Yeah, it’s it’s another challenge. It’s I think it’s particularly felt because obviously impacting a lot of people in so many different communities and companies and it’s impacting everybody and to come so soon on the back of the pandemic feel like Yeah, we’re hoping that there’s an equitable resolution very soon.
I’m keeping my ears open, hoping a bunch of text messages start going off in the audience. But yeah, I think everyone hopes they can get back to work soon.
Jill Goldsmith: What might the industry look like? Let’s say it settles soon. What are some of the ongoing issues? They’ll be. A lot of projects looking to start up, but maybe actors not available or leaving Indies going to studios.
Laura Lewis: I think it’s gonna be like when the doors reopened when, people figured out a way to shoot during COVID, it’s okay, the schedules have all gotten screwed up.
The certain movies and TV shows were put on pause, and they’re just gonna hit unpause when it starts. But if you have a movie that was supposed to go, this winter, and then that TV shows now messing with it. Yeah, it’s just gonna be schedules are gonna be. That’s exactly what we went through in the fall of 2020, early 2021.
Jill Goldsmith: So similar, Tim, what do you think?
Tim White: Yeah, I think exactly what Laura said. I think that if you’re holding actors right now for independent films, I think you are in jeopardy when strike ends that, Netflix or somebody who can offer a lot of money is going to come in and I think make your cast feel an offer that they can’t.
Walk away from it is. It definitely is, I think, in the independent producers interest to try to get your movies locked in with the interim agreement and get them done or at least get everything set up because I do think,
Milan Popelka: It is going to be like. the gears are opening again and there’s gonna be a lot of stuff going on.
Joe Simpson: We’re seeing quite a few films that are coming through with a way they’re getting packaged ready to go that I think might not yet go until the strike finishes. But the second strike finishes there’ll be plenty of talent availability and probably a short window for the indies to be able to move super quick and get into production.
And then I think we’ll probably see that. Maybe four, five, six months later, the talent starts getting hoovered up with other projects that aren’t induced.
Jill Goldsmith: I Wanted to do this at the start of the panel didn’t, but whoever could, I just wanted to see who was in the room, and could producers Raise their hands.
Okay. Great. But it seems like quite a few. Yeah. Or who isn’t? Okay. Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks. I just, I guess I wanted to ask about the green light process again, because it’s like the crux of everything post strike. Just what will it look like? I know we’re going back to what you talked about earlier, but how is that going to work?
Differently or not. You’re the finance, you guys are the financiers.
Milan Popelka: I don’t know that I’d say it’ll look different. I think when times are challenging and require that, I know this will sound very general, but more thought, more strategy, more really interrogation of what you’re doing and how and with who and for how much. We’re, our business is active. We see the sales market is active. People are putting together movies, making movies.
The question is what kind of movies will have success? And I think that rationality bit is going to be just hugely important. I think that’s that’s really what this climate is forcing. It’s really thinking about what you’re making your movies for, who’s going to see them, and how those things connect with each other.
And, I think there will be a premium just seeing all the hands of the producers. It is an opportunity because there will be a premium for people that know how to make great undeniable movies, and that can mean anything that doesn’t mean a superhero movie or a job makes the hundred million dollars and make wins an Oscar.
Things that people want to see that brings something new to the conversation that have a big idea to have a great voice. And this feels like a little. Too optimistic at a time like this, but we do fundamentally believe it is an opportunity for the people that say it’s challenged, but people still need movies.
Some people are like hanging back thinking it’s too challenging. I’m going to do that. And then I’m going to do it at a. Finance plan that is sensible, that makes sense, that allows it to succeed. And there’s a lot of independent producers that have that skill set, because they’ve had to be scrappy, they’ve had to figure it out.
And I think that we can look at it as a really tough time, or we can look at it as a chance to really stand out and bring things to market. Either this kind of market where we’d be selling it, or eventually, to a consumer market. And Make great things at a price because that would be more valued in my view in the next couple of years than it ever has been and who is investing in independent films in the U S And overseas. Co productions, is there, is it the same money, the same private equity kind of assembled of investors? Or are there new?
Milan Popelka: I hear there’s a finance company that started a couple of years ago, the go to [00:35:00] financier. But also no, look, I think when you’re putting your films together, there’s many different ways of putting the finance plan together.
But very often there will need to be some equity there, and that’s, and having equity partners is a really useful thing. Now you need to look after them, you need to look after their investments. And one of the ways of doing that is de risking their investment by being responsible with the budget, optimizing all of your tax credits.
And if there is, if you are going a route where there’s going to be a debt piece against some of the sales, doing that in a responsible cost efficient way so that the equity can see a way out. But I’m not aware of, there being huge, large equity funds out there. I think it’s usually Individuals with a passion for the sector and want to put some money to work in movies.
Milan Popelka: I agree with all of that. I also think that it’s not. There’s been some fundamental change of what capital is out there. We’re seeing equity looking for smart investments. We see lenders getting really creative and finding little ways to stretch on the coverage that they give. Sales companies are investing that I feel like the ecosystem of investors is the same.
I actually. I think their money really isn’t the problem. It’s finding compelling investment opportunities where the creative is there and it’s the locomotive driving everything, but then it’s built in a way where the finance plan makes sense and matches to what how these people invest because everyone has a different risk profile and returns that they’re looking based on what kind of risk they’re taking.
I think there’s more types of financing out there, whether it’s debt, senior kind, whether it’s mass, whether it’s equity. Okay. Then there needs to be, it’s great again for producers, because if you have the thing that people want and you have something that’s built sensibly and as exciting creatively, the money won’t be the problem typically.
And if it is the problem, then you should be having a reassessment of what the finance plan looks like and what their expectations are. I actually think capital. Everyone including us, have to answer a question that I think everyone in our ecosystem in a challenging time has to answer is why us?
Because if they’re, if I’m providing equity but 10 other people want the same project because it’s one of the ones people must have and it’s really sensible with great producers. Why is that project picking you and sometimes it’s just the producers that have to say, in the flush years where so many movies being bought, people will just get to go out there and the producer would have to do that argument.
But now the producer can be interviewing the financing and saying, why with you guys? Why not with somebody else? And it’s actually a great position to be in if you’re a producer. And there has to be a compelling answer on the other end of it. And I can go back to that. I think everyone in the entire chain of making movies has to answer the why us in a challenging environment where less movies are getting made, and where the economics are harder and theatricals harder.
But especially for financiers, if you’re charging 10 percent more than the person down the hall from you, you have to explain why, and a lot of times you’ll hear we’re really easy to work with. But you hear that from everybody and there’s a handful of companies where that’s actually the proposition.
And you’re like, Oh yeah, no, they really are. But just because it’s on a, a website, it’s not enough. You’re charging more explain why. And I think that every piece of the finance plan has to explain why that including, countries like, why is your tax incentive the one that you’re coming out to?
Why is it more reliable? Does it pay out faster? Is it, does it cost you less than legal? Are we, there, there’s a. There’s a discussion around all those pieces. And so also,
Tim White: I think, just to echo exactly what
everyone said, and I think what Milan just said. Is is and also since this is a room full of producers, I think really the main focus, at least to me, is how we think about things should always be the creative, should be the project, should be acquiring and controlling the great piece of material. We have never had an issue finding the financing for something that was truly compelling with interesting actors attached with a good filmmaker, unless it’s just a, a very tough topic and finance is out there, the, the traditional players, like Joe and Milan, are always around and it’s always there’s some of that.
Different equity players coming in and out of the business, but it’s always there and and I think that as for us, at least as a producer, we’re never starting with like financing, it’s all process. We’re starting with the creative and I think really asking ourselves, how good is the material?
At the end of the day, you’ll always find the financing. For something that
Milan Popelka: should be made. The only thing I
Laura Lewis: want to add is I agree with all of them. The money’s out there. One said there’s a lot of money. And all the different tranches. Some of the companies changed, but the different tranches are always available.
The biggest challenge we’ve been finding is just making sure our budget matches. the financing that you have available for your project, as costs go up the, the new contracts are going to go up again with inflation. That’s been our biggest challenge is, okay, we’ve raised this much money for the movie, which is what the movie should be made for.
How do we get our budget to match it and still create the quality project we want it to look like on screen? I think that’s been the biggest.
Milan Popelka: And I want to have a caveat to something I said, just because there’s a lot of money out there and you can find it easily doesn’t mean that all money is the same.
It’s you want trusted partners that have done it before. They’re going to be aligned, they’re going to be in it with you when there’s a problem of some kind, because every movie has a problem, as everyone in the room knows, nothing goes seamlessly. And so reputable companies that have been around, that have credits that, it’s a small world, you can vet the reputation just because a new entrant is in and is offering the same thing.
The reputation of that money is not to be ignored. And so I don’t want to be flippant and just say, Hey, just capital’s out there. Cause it’s not I think where
Tim White: I would also add to that too, is that, Is that as a when you make a deal with a financier, in most cases, ultimately, depending on the way the deal is put together, but in a lot of cases, the financier is going to ultimately have a tie break on sort of a lot of the business decisions as they should, if they’ve got real capital on the line.
And I think you want to could go with someone who I think, is going to use that in a in the right way, if it ever comes to that.
Jill Goldsmith: I think Tim, we were speaking earlier and you just said that. You talk about how complicated it is to put together an independent project, and it’s great that there’s money around, but just the different pieces are so taxing, and
Tim White: that I can give my you talk about that. Yeah, and this is coming from a person who doesn’t.
Do these types of movies sort of day in, day out I think Joe and Milan and also Laura, especially at CIA when she was there, I think what always amazes me with the classic independent structure is really just how much actually needs to happen in order to actually close the financing and get the movie going.
You have to have all your actors, you have to have your actor deals done, you have to have pre sales, you have to have all the agreements signed. The equity deal done, the bank loan, the bond deal. You’ve got to, sign on with all the gills. You have to have an interparty agreement with all the gills.
You have a bridge loan. Sometimes you have to actually hit this strike price to make it. So the money is all there in the account. And you have to do it in a very narrow time frame. And it’s honestly very hard for it. Producer doesn’t have the infrastructure in place, and I think it doesn’t do these all the time. I think that brings me back a little bit to what we were saying earlier, about actually working with a partner who knows what they’re doing because I think I think these things are actually really hard to close.
And just because maybe one company offers you a deal that’s slightly better than another company or slightly better terms or this or that, I think you have to ask yourself, okay, but Can this company actually hit this checklist with 20 items on it that all needs to be done before a dollar actually hits the account.
And it’s a special skill and it takes a lot of infrastructure and sort of, and relationships and experience with banks, the bond company, the guilds. In order to do that. So yeah, that’s always that’s always been the case. I assume right.
Tim White: It’s in my sphere. Unless you have just one investor who puts up all the money for the movie, that’s a different thing.
But I think if you’re doing. And if you’re doing any sort of independent structure in that way with pre sales debt financing, equity financing and with a bond, it’s a mountain of paperwork, it’s like that, like Joe and Milan do these, all the time and they have a system for it.
So also the repeat business thing in every single part of the process. One, you start to get to know how you work and what, what forms you use and who the people are and what the personalities are. And if it, and then also if it goes well, then you just have a sort of view into what the next experience is going to be.
So we have a movie with Joe that we’re in the middle of right now, and it’s a great experience. It’s great. It’s going to make it so much easier to go find more and more to do together because of that, as opposed to if you meet somebody for the first time and you’re like, Hey, I do this. And relationships as much as it is in any business, I would say in our business where things get complicated, it’s when the challenges hit when there’s 148 things on a closing checklist that have to happen in three weeks, like you want to be in the foxhole with people that want are professionals that have done it, but also you’ve worked with before, and you like them, and you know that they’re able to do it.
That is a that is a thing that I don’t think anyone should take lightly. There’s no way to make it easier.
Joe Simpson: There’s probably other ways of making it easier. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s any less complex, but we try and pride ourselves on having a very efficient closing process.
And often it will just depend on how complicated the finance plan is. We just closed a deal, a picture that just wrapped in Scotland that had five different jurisdictions putting money in, five different sets of, taxpayers money going in. That was a very complicated closing. We got there and we do films that are much more straightforward.
They have a bunch of resources, a state or a country tax credit. They are more simple to to pay for. But in any deal, I’m always aware when we’re closing that frankly, the producer, the lead producer should be focused on prep for the movie working with their director, working with the talent, and actually making a great movie, rather than spending time on the phone with my team trying to close the movie.
[00:47:00] Yeah, we try and make it as easy as it can be, but it is complicated or complex at least.
Jill Goldsmith: Do you have any questions that you’d like to ask each other? I just thought I would throw that out there before, before I follow.
Jill Goldsmith: All right. So just how do you see, given everything that we’ve talked about, so how do you see the landscape in the next two to three years? I know this is a little bit repetitive, but I’m curious what the biggest change will be.
Joe Simpson: I don’t know about the biggest change. Hopefully the biggest change over the next two to three years is the strike is finished.
But the look, I’m optimistic. I’m cautiously optimistic. I think people have been watching movies for decades and people continue to watch movies for decades and the role that other folks in our business that aren’t in the independent space, play, studios, streamers, will continue to evolve.
But the independent film sector is incredibly resilient. It’s very bright people who’ve got fantastic taste and People are going back to theatres. I’m optimistic. I see growth.
Laura Lewis: Yeah, I’m really optimistic. I think, as I said earlier, a business model was tested that didn’t quite work and the dust is going to settle from that and we’ve got at least another three years before another strike.
But no, in all seriousness I totally agree. I think that We’re on the other side of some really challenging times. I’m really tired of saying the word unprecedented and really hope I don’t have to say it again next year. And I think that’s just going to create opportunity. One of my very good friends and advisors in the business is he always says, don’t let a good I think that’s what we’re on the other side of now is we’re going to have new models.
The business has been shaken up. There’s going to be more taking of chances with distribution, more taking of chances with different storytelling, as long as it has a voice and characters. And as Joe said, like we’re in a business that’s, a century old. It’s not storytelling is, and then storytelling is thousands of years old.
It’s not dying. So there’s a lot of opportunity to come.
Milan Popelka: I share the optimism as you heard me say, and I think you have to be it. This has never been an easy business. People aren’t here because it’s easy. People are here because they love storytelling and they love movies and they want to do this.
And that optimism is the thing that you need because some of these movies take. 15 years. I think there are all sorts of challenges. There are going to be different challenges that we’re not even thinking of. But I’ll echo what Joe was saying where people love movies. How many decades it’s been around and it’s also the world’s getting more divisive as we know, and it’s a communal experience.
It’s a desire to go and watch something together with. other humans and have a wonderful experience from that. And that’s the engine of it. I do think people are going to have to [00:50:00] be disciplined and really challenge each other to, to answer that question I was saying, which is the, why us?
And I talked about it, with financiers, but sales agents have to answer it. Like why are producers that have premium projects coming to us? And I think producers have to ask themselves that every single day, why does that really talented writer want to work with them? What is that experience and why does cast want to work on that movie?
And I think every part of that the moviemaking chain has to have a really compelling answer to that as times get more complicated, but my views, people should be doing that anyway. And maybe this is just a forcing mechanism to really define what does he bring to the table? And companies have to do that every single day.
Otherwise, they’ll be out of business.
Jill Goldsmith: Two, three year production. I know at the end of the day, I’m also Really optimistic. I think maybe it’s, there’s uncertainty around, what the actual distribution is going to look like, but I think one thing that really is clear is that people do love movies and they love them more and more.
It seems like it’s not something that’s going down, something that’s increasing. It’s really just about the way they watch them. And I think there’s a lot of opportunity in. In this business right now in our business and I think it’s really on us and everyone in this room to figure out the stories that really should be told and the best way to tell them the right price to
tell them at in a way that the industry is able to keep sustaining itself. But I think we should all be optimistic that we’re in a business that provides something to people that they really do love.
Jill Goldsmith: And then, Laura, you mentioned sort of an experiment that didn’t, and I think you’re talking about the streaming, can you elaborate on this stuff from an outside perspective, what happened within from that side?
Laura Lewis: Yeah, but I think our model was licensing rights and making money off of different. Windows licensing your content to different distributors, and when you’re keeping everything in house with a finite cap on the number of people that can watch it and not going to the people that might be elsewhere I think that’s proven difficult and keeping everything vertically integrated, and we’re starting to see a more openness of One streaming company licensing their content to another streaming company to access those.
I think that’s smart. I think that is I’m seeing more openness to,
This is a little bit more on the TV side, but studios not only selling to themselves, but wanting to sell to others. And I think that’s going to create opportunity for all of us. Across all different storytelling mediums.
So that gives me hope is that they’re going to be smarter about the business instead of retaining everything
Jill Goldsmith: Anyone else want to comment on that?
Joe Simpson: We’ve seen a few. Just seeing practical examples of that come along whereby A movie that might previously have been acquired by a streamer and taken all rights that there’s now some flexibility and that they’ll take pay one rights and they might even let some other distributor put the movie on to transaction B and D platforms at the same time that they’ve got it on their platform and that flexibility is good, right?
I think it’s good that the platform’s clients will see the movie, but it will also open it up to a broader audience and it just gives the filmmakers more chance to. Get more eyeballs watching the movie. I hope that flexibility is increased continues.
Jill Goldsmith: And Laura, I wanted to ask you about the producers union. Can you tell me what you’re trying to do?
Laura Lewis: Producers are the only line item in a budget that doesn’t have union protection. A lot, there’s a misnomer that the PGA is a union. It’s not. It’s a trade [00:54:00] association. And I think this time of everybody talking about labor issues, not only in our industry, but across the country and the globe, it’s not a lot of producers to talk about our plate as well.
And the fact that we don’t have. minimums, we don’t get residuals, we don’t have healthcare, we don’t have the basic things that every other creative on a project has, and we’re also usually on it the longest. So we are trying to figure out a way to get us the protections in that respect. That others have in building a livelihood for themselves.
So we’re starting to come together and talk, which is great. Cause I think producers often keep their head down and focus on the creative and focus on the artists whose vision, their champion that have forgotten about our careers and. We’re now talking to one another and forming a union so that we can fight for that.
Jill Goldsmith: What kind of time frame could you imagine? Oh God.
Laura Lewis: I honestly don’t know. We’re still in the very nascent stages, but yeah.
Jill Goldsmith: That’s exciting. So I guess if I could ask maybe each of you we talked about being optimistic, cautiously about the future, but what I don’t know what indie film projects.
Sale or theatrical run or over the past six months that you’ve seen in the sector made you sit up and say, wow that’s great. Something specific.
Milan Popelka: So many
Joe Simpson: an independent film that performed really well, perform
Jill Goldsmith: really well in theaters or on streaming.
Joe Simpson: I don’t know. It’s a great opportunity to promote the films we financed, right? But we no, in no small part, thanks to Milan, there’s, we helped finance a film called The Crow, remaking of The Crow. It’s sold extraordinarily well, and I think will perform extraordinarily well in theatres in the future.
And that’s been a great experience of an indie movie that was many years in, in prac. People put a lot of time and effort and money into it, so that’s something I’ve seen recently. It’s a good story.
Tim White: It’s okay.
Milan Popelka: I’m happy to go. For of our own and I don’t pick favorites cause I love most of our movies, but Florence on was a really great experience. It was a movie that didn’t have such huge locomotive elements that it was a big, sizable movie. It was just filmmaker is so talented with the voice, a great story that had feel good optimism to it.
He had a really talented cast was made for a price and had a really great outcome played at Sundance and got a. with Apple that has been a wonderful experience all the way through and people connected with the movie. I see other people’s movies having that same success when you look at like past lives.
It’s such a beautiful movie but did really well. And then, BarbenHeimer, like both the movies completely. And I, there’s a lot of explaining away that was a brand that was a really big budget. That all makes sense, but they were so creative and inventive and it dragged so many people out.
I just remember. It’s great. Being on the Upper West Side trying to get an IMAX ticket. It took me five weeks to get one. I was sitting on conference calls, hitting refresh, trying to find a single seat at 1030 for a three hour movie. And it, the joy that I had from my frustration of not being able to buy a ticket.
And, and you can say, Oh, it’s Chris Nolan. And you can say it’s a big movie, but It was really drama at its heart. It was visual and beautiful. And I went in and every seat was taken and people were just staring at the screen. I would say that gives you a good boost of inspiration.
So I think that those would be some You stole the other
Laura Lewis: one. I was the other one I was going to add, I was going to say Sundance this year, especially got me very excited because there was some great newer voices that Cut through past lives is one of them. And God, I love that film. It was just such a beautiful directorial debut.
And I love that one is a more theatrical and then I was going to tell Tim and fair play another great. New voice
Jill Goldsmith: launching into the
Laura Lewis: world and then also a good financial outcome and that one soldier streaming. I think that shows there’s different models floor and son, which I also was so jealous of wish I produced it was also success.
So I think we saw different models of different films there, but it’s all about voice, and all three of those had such unique voices that really cut through.
Jill Goldsmith: And so I
Tim White: think also just to talk to the power of Netflix, actually, this was the first movie we had done that was actually acquired by Netflix, Fair Play, and I will say this, it was really amazing how many people [00:59:00] texted me the next day after it came out.
Table that I hadn’t even heard from in 25, 30 years just completely out of the woodwork that saw our names on it. And it was definitely amazing. I think it did give me an appreciation of the reach of, the platform because it was was unlike anything we’d seen.
Milan Popelka: It was deserved. One other thing I’d add is I know.
It’s the American film market, but there’s buyers from all around the world. And generally, a lot of these conversations focus on what’s happening in the U. S. and American theaters and American production companies. There’s such great storytelling happening everywhere in the world. You have producers, distributors, financiers from every country in the world and there’s so many, especially when economics matter more and you have to figure out creative ways to get your movies made.
There’s, people talk about incentive schemes and, that’s always been something that’s part of every finance plan, but there’s co productions to do. There’s different companies. They’re doing exciting things in every territory around the world. And there’s so many of these stories are global and can travel and they can be made for a big scale or a small scale.
I do think there’s opportunity for inventive partnership in other countries around the world. So stories and it doesn’t have to be just local producers. American producers can work in those territories. We see it all the time. We’re in those territories every day. We’re talking to folks.
There’s all sorts of collaborations happening. I do think that people in the room that are trying to produce their films should think about it. Is there, something inherent in the story? Either it takes place somewhere else culturally connects with somewhere else. Is there a unique model that works to help them get their made if they’re running into roadblocks here for any number of reasons?
And as a general statement, but it’s so specific to whatever the thing that you’re doing is, but I think there’s a whole world of opportunity out there intended or not intended. I’m not sure. But I think people should keep that in mind.
Jill Goldsmith: So maybe the last thing I wanted to ask is about developing talent, future filmmakers because with so many films on streaming still although in theaters as well, but there are a lot of like foreign films that don’t do as well.
And a lot of have short runs or just aren’t as full as they might have been in the past. And I think, Martin Scorsese has said a number of times, like over the past year, that just he’s worried that the next great young filmmakers, they can’t get inspired by watching. A movie on T on a streaming network and they need to, see a range of movies in theaters.
And that’s how you build the next generation of, talent. I don’t know, he’s on one extreme, but it’s, is there are you concerned at all? Or how do you think it’s going to evolve? The next great producers, directors,
Laura Lewis: I think for filmmakers, it’s, Tim just said like that film had so many people watching it.
And I think for filmmakers that reaches great because it. And then they’ll get that next project. So getting that. Yeah. I am concerned a little bit about actors because so much of the foreign sales model is based on box office and previous history. And if, and really it’s harder to break an actor on a streaming platform, I don’t know if there’s a group that are not.
So that’s the biggest concern I have is like who we get a lot of pushback when we’re trying to cast. And we already have, foreign sales agent and a distributor on boards like, Oh, this person’s not theatrical. It’s that’s the one concern when something is. This sold straight to streaming is it breaking actors?
Jill Goldsmith: So I think I’m done. Is there anything else?
I don’t know if there’s one thing you guys could change about the way the industry is working now. What would it be?
Tim White: We want the strike to finish. The striping over. I wish things move faster.
Laura Lewis: Yeah, the slow pace is hard when you just want to go. Yeah, I wish these strikes would move a little bit faster, but and I will say, I wish that they’d led a little bit more to so something we’re talking about box office results and managing expectations. I do wish we had more transparency on the other revenue streams because it puts so much pressure on just what the theatrical means.
And we never quite know what’s working elsewhere. I’m hoping we’re chipping away at getting a little bit more transparency on the other because that, yeah, things are successful. We just don’t know it.
Milan Popelka: that’s always, there’s also like a lag timing and maybe this is too specific, but you see what’s happening out in the economy, see what’s happening with the contraction consolidation, but then you look at the budget and I think everyone on this stage will know this inflationary pressures drive up.
The cost of everything, you look at interest rate costs and that just eating a bigger and bigger chunk of your budget. And then you look at all the above the line costs and the price of things. And it takes a while for those to match up with what’s happening in the market.
And eventually there’s always a Cal recalibration. It’s just the way the world works, but sometimes there’s that 12 month stretch where people are like adjusting to new reality. And right now is a time where those budgets just. They feel pinched. And it is, you want as much money on screen as you can possibly get.
And I think all those things will ease over time, but right now, it just, that’s why I was saying it puts a premium on producers that can just Figure out really creative ways to do things for a price because there’s a lot of pressures that are making that even harder all at the same time, and it’ll take a bit to correct, but I think it’s always been the case.
Tim White: I guess the end of the day if I could change anything about this business, it would be the pace, I think it’s amazing how long we wait for. For an actor to read a script for a director to read a script for someone, it’s just you spend a lot of time just waiting and following up and then also how long it takes to actually get the deal done through all the back and forth, which is amazing because deals are done all the time.
And I was talking to someone who in Raises money and, for tech companies in Silicon Valley. And people say, yes, the deal’s there. And then the contracts are signed, days later. And in our business, you have a closed deal and then the contract is signed like a year later, sometimes it goes back and forth.
And so just all of these things about it, that all being said, it also is amazing. Just if you need to actually get something done in 24 hours. If you don’t, the movie will shut down. It gets done then.
Jill Goldsmith: Thank you. Thank you so much. Joe, Laura, Milan, Tim. Great discussion.
